Retail gross sales fell 0.4% to $69.3 billion in February, dragged down by a pointy drop at auto sellers and continued weak spot in housing-related classes.
It’s the second straight month-to-month drop and caps off a sluggish first quarter for Canadian shoppers.
The most important hit got here from motorized vehicle and elements sellers, the place gross sales tumbled 2.6%. All 4 retailer varieties within the class had been down, with new automotive sellers posting a 3.0% drop.
In the meantime, core retail gross sales—which strip out gasoline and auto-related purchases—rose a modest 0.5%, buoyed by grocery and liquor retailer gross sales. In quantity phrases, retail gross sales additionally declined by 0.4%.
Seven provinces recorded month-to-month declines, with Quebec (-0.9%) and Nova Scotia (-2.6%) main the best way. Manitoba stood out with a 1.8% acquire, because of greater automobile gross sales.
E-commerce gross sales additionally dipped barely, down 0.3% to $4.3 billion, representing 6.3% of all retail commerce.
What this implies for future price cuts
Whereas February’s information present ongoing client fatigue, March may look quickly higher. StatCan’s early estimate suggests gross sales rebounded by 0.7% final month—probably boosted by Canadians speeding to purchase big-ticket objects earlier than new tariffs kicked in.
However economists from BMO and CIBC agree that the bounce isn’t more likely to final.
This “is a glance within the rearview mirror at this level,” BMO’s Shelly Kaushik wrote, noting that client sentiment has since taken a success from the continued commerce warfare.
CIBC’s Katherine Choose agreed, pointing to rising uncertainty and indicators that job losses may begin mounting—elements that would preserve consumers on the sidelines heading into spring.
Choose stated the Financial institution of Canada ought to have “sufficient proof of GDP weak spot by the
June assembly to chop charges by 25bps.”
That’s in step with what the Financial institution of Canada has heard from shoppers straight. Its newest Canadian Survey of Shopper Expectations reveals households are as anxious concerning the economic system now as they had been through the top of the pandemic.
OIS market pricing presently places the percentages of a 25-basis-point price lower at roughly 66% for the Financial institution’s June 4 assembly, which might carry its coverage price all the way down to 2.50%.
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Final modified: April 25, 2025
