2024 overview
There isn’t a manner round it: 2024 was a in absolute phrases AND relative phrases actually dangerous. The Worth & Alternative portfolio misplaced -2,5 % (together with dividends, no taxes, AOC fund as of 30.09.2023) towards +4,9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all efficiency indices together with Dividends). Hyperlinks to earlier Efficiency critiques could be discovered on the Efficiency Web page of the weblog.
Another funds that I observe have carried out as follows in 2024:
Companions Fund TGV: 4,8%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +9,0%
Over the 14 years from 12/31/2010 to 12/31/2024, the portfolio gained +387% towards +168% for the Benchmark (earlier than taxes). In CAGR numbers this interprets into 12% p.a. for the portfolio vs. 7,3% p.a. for the Benchmark.
As a graph this appears as follows:
Present portfolio / Portfolio transactions & New positions:
In 2024, portfolio exercise was medium busy as already talked about within the “23 (+1) shares for 2025” Put up.
New positions had been: Hermle, Amadeus Fireplace, Eurokai, EVS, STEF and Fuchs plus one undisclosed one.
Offered positions: In 2024, I offered Photo voltaic Group, DEME, Admiral and ABO Vitality. Logistec was taken out as a consequence of a purchase out. . The one short-term member was Ocean Wilsons (Particular Sit). The present portfolio per 31.12.2024 could be seen as at all times on the portfolio web page.
Some Portfolio statistics
The weighted holding interval as of 31.12.2024 has been 3,8 years and is inside my goal of 3-5 years. It declined barely primarily due to the sale of Admiral. The 10 largest positions account for round 52% (52%) of the portfolio, the largest 20 for round 91% (86%).
“Energetic share” vs “do nothing”
The “Do nothing” strategy, i.e. simply letting the Portfolio run from 31.12.2023 and accumulate dividends would have resulted in a efficiency of -1,7%, so my “energetic contribution” in 2024 was a detrimental -0,8%. Among the gross sales had been timed nicely (Admiral, DEME, Photo voltaic), however I invested in dropping shares like Hermle and Amadeus Fireplace.
Month-to-month returns 2024
In relative phrases, the primary half of 2024 was comparatively in step with the benchmark.
The relative underperformance occurred from August to November after the portfolio reached an ATH in July. Aside from the 12 months earlier than, I had no huge winners like Schaffner or Logistec and so the underperformance continued till 12 months finish.
Annual returns 2011-2024
2024 was now the third 12 months in 14 years during which I underperformed the benchmark (and the second in a row) and the fourth with a detrimental return. Once more, this was pushed by the numerous underperformce of small caps particularly in France and Germany as talked about above. My benchmark consists out of fifty% German/European Giant caps, in distinction, my solely massive cap is ACT with a 5% weight and even that inventory had a flat efficiency in 2024.
If I would want to promote my technique to traders, I would argue that the final time once I underperformed so badly, the following 12 months was unbelievable, however actually, I don’t know what occurs in 2025.
Errors made in 2024
As at all times, I made numerous errors, largely not pulling the set off on some high quality shares I had been watching (Video games Workshop, Goodwin) and as a substitute shopping for “cheaper” cyclical ones with the hope of a 2024 restoration (Hermle, Amadeus Fireplace). Though I noticed that I used to be fallacious with my timing, I didn’t scale back the effected shares sufficient (solely small reductions of Hermle & Amadeus Fireplace)
Total, I clearly didn’t focus sufficient on diviersifying the underlying enterprise publicity sufficient and subsequently ended up holding the bag of an excessive amount of publicity to cyclical German and French shares.
What went nicely in 2024
This part is brief. I feel I elevated to high quality of the portfolio to a ceertain extent however with out a lot too present for efficiency. I additionally managed to overview a few of the present positions (Sixt, Admiral) which is commonly a wrestle as lokoing at new shares is at all times “extra horny”. I additionally labored on my “funding infrastructure” like creating a core structured watchlist strategy.
Classes realized 2024
The foremost lesson was clearly that betting on a “macro turn-around” in 2024 for “core Europe” was a nasty thought. I mustn’t do that once more and concentrate on firms that do nicely in any situation.
One other leasson that I realized is clearly that my underlying technique, which isn’t to explicitly search for winners however to largely keep away from losers, doesn’t work nicely in a market the place the returns are pushed by a couple of shares. Within the subsequent weeks I’ll subsequently overview the technique together with the benchmark extra completely.
Remark “Extrapolate the previous at your individual threat”
As talked about earlier than, I truly began investing as a teen within the second half of the Nineteen Eighties (Sure, I’m that previous). Moreover beginning to make investments or moderately amateurish speculate within the inventory market, I devoured each books that by some means needed to do with the then very fashionable “Cyberpunk” theme. I particularly appreciated the “Shadowrun” sequence.
The Shadowrun books had been a reasonably crude and and dystopian (however enjoyable) combination of Fantasy and “tech fiction” with one fascinating side: Within the Shadowrun universe, the interval the place many of the tales performed (2050 or so) was dominated by a couple of enormous Tech conglomerates, which funnily largely had Japanese names. Why was that the case ? I assume it was almost definitely a mirrored image of the dominating “story” within the late Nineteen Eighties and early Nineteen Nineties that Japan and Japanese firms are unstoppable and can dominate the world eternally. And simply to be clear: These books had been written largely by American authors.
Again than, firms like Sony, and so on. had been taking on every part that needed to do with electronics and Japanese firms went on a shopping for spree fueled by their ever growing inventory and actual property markets.
After all everyone knows how that story ended, however again then most individuals simply extrapolated the previous years into the longer term. I only in the near past learn the very fascinating biography of Masa Son, “Playing Man”, which covers that period and the way apparent looking back it was that this increase would finish in some unspecified time in the future. However again then it wasn’t apparent in any respect.
Up to now 20 years now we have seen two comparable tales taking part in out: The primary one is the Chinese language story. Fairly much like Japan, China seemed unstoppable till very lately. Now it has turn out to be fairly apparent that the financial mannequin of China from the previous, counting on huge infrastructure and actual eastate funding has run out of steam. How that is going to finish, nobody is aware of, however the “Japanese State of affairs” is turning into increasingly doubtless.
The second story, which continues to be going robust, is the “American Exceptionalism” story, now embodied largely by way of the “Magnificient 7” (or 8) shares which were driving returns up to now two years. Each time I talk about investments as of late, the primary query is at all times: Why don’t you simply make investments into US shares ? Many traders as of late simply extrapolate the previous and as soon as once more imagine that “this time it’s completely different” and the American inventory market basically and these shares specifically are as soon as once more unstoppable eternally.
If one thing like Shadowrun would emerge as of late, I’m fairly certain that the Megacorps of the longer term could be named primarily based on Amazon, Microsoft, Google or Meta.
Though historical past doesn’t repeat itself, it at all times rhymes. So additionally on this case , in some unspecified time in the future in time, cyclicality will kick in and people unstoppable giants will all of a sudden look way more susceptible. To be clear: I don’t know when this wil lbe the case. This 12 months ? Subsequent 12 months or in 3 years time ? However looking back, it’ll look a lot clearer what may have brought about this and why as soon as once more, simply extrapolating the previous into the distant future is rarely a good suggestion.
However what about generative/agentic AI ? Who is aware of. Possibly as soon as once more, Microsoft & Co handle to seize many of the financial upside, possibly not. 3 years in the past it was the Metaverse, possibly in 3 years time it’s one thing else. In the interim, just one factor is evident: Their enterprise has turn out to be way more capital intensive and the one firm which is basically incomes cash right here is Nvidia and semiconductors have at all times been cyclical.
Possibly it seems that Tibetian monks are finest outfitted to coach the final word AGI ? I’m personally very sceptic that the Magnificient 7 and American firms basically will at all times win in any situation. However that’s to a sure extent priced into their shares. So be further cautious and don’t merely extrapolate the previous.
Bonus observe: “Digital Madness”
