In mild of China’s reopening and easing of Covid guidelines, Hong Kong’s property market might be on a path to restoration in 2023, in line with property consultancy Colliers Hong Kong.
The retail market specifically will reap the “finest profit,” Hannah Jeong, Colliers’ head of valuation and advisory providers, informed CNBC’s “Squawk Field Asia” on Thursday.
Nonetheless, there are nonetheless some potential headwinds this yr that will undercut Hong Kong’s restoration, Colliers mentioned in its newest report. These embrace continued geopolitical stress and a possible world recession.
“We’re a extra cautiously optimistic view for 2023,” Jeong added.
“There might be completely different uncertainties from exterior components however borders opening is definitely the one of many booster[s] for a lot of different sectors throughout the property market.”
Retail to be ‘first runner’
In response to Colliers, the retail sector — particularly the excessive road store phase — would be the “first runner” within the post-Covid restoration in 2023 with each rents and costs.
“We’re about an 8% enhance year-on-year, by way of the retail rental efficiency,” Jeong added.
She mentioned, nevertheless, that is nonetheless about 25% to 30% decrease than pre-Covid ranges.
Collier added in its report that regardless of China’s reopening, native consumption will stay “an necessary driver” for Hong Kong’s retail market within the subsequent 12 months.
“The shifted procuring sample of the Mainlanders during the last three years might paint a brand new image to the brand new retail market sentiment,” it added.
Within the workplace sector, Grade A workplace rents will bounce again by 3% this yr, mentioned Colliers — because of “pent-up demand from Chinese language and abroad firms.”
Even so, Jeong mentioned that Hong Kong’s workplace market nonetheless has a excessive emptiness fee, at 14.7%.
“Nevertheless it’s not it isn’t the tip of the world as a result of … in contrast with different peer cities, 8% to 10% is a typically affordable quantity,” she added.
Residential market demand to dampen
Hong Kong’s house costs plunged to a five-year low in October as rates of interest hikes pushed up borrowing prices.
This resulted in a “softening of funding demand,” mentioned Jeong, however the demand from homebuyers nonetheless exists.
“Homebuyers … [have been] using this time when market is softening, they’ll snatch the cheaper flats,” she added.
“However in 2023, I feel the rate of interest … will proceed to go up. We’re stabilization at the least within the second half of this yr.”
Simply final month, Hong Kong raised rates of interest by 50 foundation factors to 4.75%, following the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Excessive prices of borrowing will dampen residential market demand and a “unfavourable 5% to 10% downward adjustment” ought to therefore be anticipated this yr, Jeong mentioned.
