Following an annual custom, I’ll attempt to evaluate my present portfolio not less than annually by writing quick summaries for every particular person place. 14 of the 28 positions from final yr are nonetheless within the portfolio and I’ve added 9 new positions. That tunover has been primarily pushed by the occasions in 2022, which have modified fundamentals for fairly a couple of of the outdated positions, but in addition opened up alternatives for brand new ones. A extra complete Efficiency evaluate will comply with in early January 2023.
A brief person information:
My fashion of investing largely concentrates on 20-30 small/midcap shares that for my part have an excellent return/threat profile over the following 3-5 years. Lots of this shares should not family names and are unlikely to make spectacular beneficial properties in a single yr. Lots of them look attention-grabbing solely after the second or third look. So if you’re on the lookout for a “Sizzling inventory for 2023”, this publish received’t enable you to a lot.
And all the time bear in mind: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
The summaries of the earlier years could be discovered right here:
My 28 Investments for 2022
My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013
Let’s go:
1. TFF Group (Portfolio weight 8,1%, Holding interval 12,0 years)
TFF is the “Final inventory standing” of the preliminary portfolio from 12 years in the past. It’s a household owned & run oak barrel producer. Has grown properly over a few years attributable to Asian demand for oak aged French wines and opportunistic acquisitions. Whisky barrels have added to development. After a few years of organically constructing US operations from scratch which required vital capital outlay and no gross sales, the primary quarter of the 2022/2023 FY noticed a big enhance in gross sales (+67%) which explains the nice efficiency in 2022. No cause to alter a lot aside from some rebalancing, “Long run Maintain”
2. G. Perrier (5,0%, 9,8 years)
French, household owned & run small cap, specialist for electrical installations with a powerful place in Nuclear upkeep. Good development regardless of financial headwinds. They added a brand new section in 2021 (aerospace and defence). Though prime line grew considerably within the first 9M, the share value was comparatively weak. Again in 2013 I purchased it as an inexpensive inventory, it turned out to be a properly run, decently rising firm that compounds properly. “Long run Maintain”.
3. Thermador (4,4%, 9,5 years)
Thermador is a French primarily based development provide distribution firm. Distinct “outsider fashion” company tradition with an emphasis on decentralized choice making and common M&A exercise. Thermador began very properly into 2022, nonetheless development slowed down slightly in Q2, solely to re-accellerate in Q3. Sadly, I failed so as to add in September when the share traded close to 60 EUR. “Long run maintain”.
4. Admiral (5,6%, 8,4 years)
“Outsider fashion” direct retail insurance coverage firm. UK primarily based, giant value benefits, founders personal vital share positions. A number of development tasks on the way in which. The EU subsidiaries are making excellent progress with an extended development runway in entrance of them. After a really resilient 2021, the inventory suffered considerably in 2022 together with all different UK insurance coverage shares and declined by round -34%. As a result of nature of the enterprise (1 yr renewal cycle), the speedy rise in claims inflation can solely be handed on with a time lag which damage income to some extent. Additionally Reinsurance would possibly develop into slightly bit costlier. On the plus aspect, Admiral’s aggressive benefits persist and even after the exit of the final founder, the corporate nonetheless appears to be properly run. “Long run maintain”.
5. Bouvet (3,8%, 8,4 years)
IT consulting firm from Norway. Once I purchased the inventory eight years in the past, the inventory value beforehand had been hit onerous by the oil value decline, Statoil was the biggest shopper. The enterprise and the inventory confirmed a powerful restoration since 2016. I used to be not sure in regards to the inventory in some years however the firm stored rising. In early 2020, I bought half of the place (a lot too early after all). The corporate surprises me very yr (+20% Gross sales and EPS in 2022) and wih Norway drowning in Oil and Fuel cash, factor might stay Okay for a while. In comparison with the standard of the enterprise, the inventory will not be too costly. “Maintain”.
6. Companions Fund (4,1%, 7,3 years)
An funding right into a fund run by a detailed buddy. Mathias is a “Munger fashion” investor with a relative concentrated portfolio of “moat” corporations, lots of them from the US. I feel it’s a good complimentary publicity for my funding fashion and he has been ouperforming my portfolio by some proportion factors per yr till 2022. On the time of writing, 2022 appears to be like like a really unhealthy yr. Aside from many “Cathy Woods fashion” development traders, I’m 100% positive that the Companions Fund will recuperate and do properly over the following 10-20 Years “Long run maintain”.
7. VEF (previously Vostok Rising Finance (1,3%, 3,7 years)
That is the sister firm of Vostok New Ventures (that I bought in 2020), however specializing on Rising Markets Fintech. The fund has a big weighting in Brazil which I discover very attention-grabbing. The administration runs the portfolio extraordinarily affected person and solely invests once they see an actual alternative. The share value acquired hammered in 2022 like many different “listed VCs”, fortunately lower than sister firm VNV. The biggest place, Brazilian Fintech Creditas appears to do nonetheless comparatively properly. Just lately I wrote about my doubts that listed Enterprise Capital has some structural points. For VEF, I’m nonetheless ready to attend a yr or two with a view to see how this performs out. “Maintain”.
8. Sixt AG Choice shares (4,0%, 1,9 years)
Sixt is an organization I’ve been admiring for a very long time however by no means managed to “pull the set off” to purchase. Lastly, throughout the darkish days of Covid-19, I managed to construct up a place within the cheaper pref shares.
2022 was not an excellent yr for the inventory value, the inventory lost-36% regardless of a rise in ~40% in gross sales and +60% in EBT. Gross sales and income at the moment are considerably above pre-Covid ranges. This interprets int ~8x 2022 P/E. Even assuming that 2023 can be a harder yr, I nonetheless suppose that Sixt is attractve at this stage. What I’ll by no means perceive is the very fact, that the Pref shares commerce at such a reduction to the frequent shares. I added to the postion throughout my yr finish rebalancing. “Long run maintain”.
9. Mediqon AG (0,8%, 2,8 years)
Mediqon is among the remainders of my “German Basket” try. The corporate tries to place itself as one thing like a “Mini Constellation” or “Mini Danaher” and has established two platforms over which they purchase small enterprise. The corporate once more managed to promote shares to new traders at excessive share costs, one of many traders is definitely one of many Rayles brothers who based Danaher. With a market cap of 200 mn EUR, the corporate now additionally would possibly take pleasure in some scale results. “Maintain”.
10. AOC Fund (4,7%, 2,4 years)
My second fund funding. This time into an “activist fund”, most well-known due to its profitable marketing campaign on Stada. They take a reasonably concentrated long run method and actively work with/in firm boards. Regardless of the incredible historic efficiency I’m additionally making an attempt to study from them. 2022 to this point appears to be like like a really sturdy yr in relative phrases, supported by considered one of their giant positions, PNE Wind which mor than doubled in 2022. “Long run Maintain”.
11. Alimentation Couche-Tard (4,5%, 1,9 years)
ACT entered the portfolio in 2021 as considered one of my only a few “giant cap” investments. It was the uncommon probability to get into a top quality compounder at an affordable valuation (13-14x trailing PE). The corporate is known for its decentralized, entrepreneurial tradition and glorious capital allocation. After a failed bid for Carrefour, ACT appears to have fallen out of favor with some traders which opened this chance. After all there are some points corresponding to the problem how EV charging will develop and sure ESG matters (Tobacco gross sales), however total that is one for the long term though it wants cautious watching (EV charging). “Long run maintain”.
12. Meier & Tobler AG (8,1%, 1,5 years)
Meier & Tobler is among the shares I found by means of my “All Swiss Shares” collection. The corporate itself runs a comparatively boring service & distribution enterprise in Switzerland, offering heating and cooling tools and providers to households and firms. The inventory turned low cost as a result of they bungled a merger with considered one of their largest opponents. In 2022, the inventory took off like a rocket primarily attributable to excessive power costs and quite a lot of enterprise from individuals who need to improve their heating programs 8heat pumps). I’ve been lowering the place already two occasions by 1/10 because the valuation has reached already the midpoit of my focused vary. “Maintain”.
13. Schaffner AG (4,1%, 1,2 years)
Schaffner is one other Swiss discovery. It’s a small firm that has undergone a big transition over the past months/years with a view to consider the present pattern in direction of Electrification. The inventory appears to be like comparatively low cost in comparison with the underlying high quality and reported development charges. In 2022, total numbers are nonetheless slightly bit depressed as a result of the small remaining vehicle section has been struggling, whereas the principle enterprise runs like a “swiss clockwork”. If the corporate could be valued like different comparable Swiss shares, they need to have vital potential. “Maintain”.
14. BioNTech AG (2,2%, 1,8 years)
BioNTech was an “inspiration” from the start of 2021. It was meant to be a “guess” each on the founders and the know-how in addition to a hedge towards a chronic Covid-19 pandemic. I bought round 1/3 of the place near peak costs, however I plan to carry BioNTech for the mid-to-long time period as I feel that there’s a first rate probability that BioNTech can develop the mRNA platform additionally right into a pipeline towards different ailments, particularly most cancers which was the unique objective of the corporate. The billions in money they made on the Covid vaccine might pace up the method. “Maintain”.
15. Nabaltec (5,7%, 0,9 years)
Nabaltec is a small German Specialty Chemical compounds firm that I added in February. The timing was clearly not optimum, as, along with virtually all chemical corporations, Nabaltec acquired hit onerous be the results of the conflict in Ukraine, particularly with regard to excessive Oil, Fuel and electrical energy costs. Apparently, Nabaltec managed to lift costs and in consequence, elevated the revenue forecast a number of occasions in 2022, regardless of some weak point of their “development story” Boehmit, which is a necessary a part of EV battery packs. From what I’ve seen to this point, Nabaltec is a conservatively run “hidden champion” that can clearly battle with excessive power costs for a while, however managed to this point rather well.
There may be additionally some “hidden upsides” within the enterprise, corresponding to a strugling US subsidiary which appears to supply now a really attention-grabbing strategic possibility. After lowering the place in early summer season, I used to be fortunate to extend it once more at very low costs. That is clearly a place to look at, however total I’m ready to carry this for a few years with a view to notice th full worth. “Maintain”.
16. Photo voltaic Group A/S (4,8%, 0,6 years)
Photo voltaic Goup is the primary results of my “all Danish Shares” collection. It’s a small Danish wholesale firm that gives provides for heating, cooling and different electrical targeted elements to craftsmen in Scandinavia and the Netherlands. After “hibernating” for a few years, the corporate has began rising in 2021 and has continued to take action in 2022. The corporate is rising at double digit charges with bettering margins and comparable excessive returns on invested capital (~25%). They’ve raised their 2022 earnings forecast 3 occasions.
Possibly I’m overlooking one thing right here (figuring out that there can be some damaging impression of a basic housing gradual donw), however to me it’s a full mistery why this inventory trades at solely 6,8x 2022 P/E. “Maintain”.
17. DCC Plc (4,6%, 0,1 years)
DCC is the newest addition to the portfolio. At its core, DCC is a really unglamorous, mid-cap distribution firm working by way of 3 completely different platforms (Vitality, “Expertise” and healthcare) across the globe and may very well be characterised as “serial acquirer”. Regardless of a particularly sturdy 20 yr+ observe report, the inventory fell out of favour and trades at very enticing valuation ranges.
The principle enterprise, (fossile) Vitality clearly has challenges, however DCC is adressing this actively of their startegy. Up to now, the entry level appears to have been “too early”, however this inevstment clearly wants a while with a view to discover out if my case works or not. “Maintain”.
18. Royal Unibrew (4,4%, 0,2 years)
Royal Unibrew is the second Danish addition ensuing from my “all Danish shares” collection. What I preferred in regards to the firm is the truth that on prime of a really sturdy observe report, they appear to have a really attention-grabbing decentralized tradition and actually good capital allocation expertise plus prime notch reporting. The enterprise as such appears to be a vey secure on and really enticing in comparison with different beverage classes.
It must be seen if they’ll alter costs as rapidly as they predicted with a view to neutralize their elevated prices. If that might be the case, the corporate would have soem vital basic upside from depressed 2022 stage. I hope that this can be a stcok that I can maintain long run.“Maintain”.
19. GTT Group (4,1%, 0,8 years)
GTT Group or previously often known as “Gaztransport et Technigaz” is a French inventory that I purchased a second time, proper after the Ukraine conflict began (first time in 2016). The corporate has a reasonably distinctive and virtually monopolistic enterprise mannequin in proudly owning the patents on methods to design and manufacture the inside and isolation of enormous LNG carriers. Usually, regardless of the excessive margins and returns on capital, the inventory would have been a lot too costly for my liking, nonetheless the particular circumstances made me set up a “tactical” place within the inventory as a most important beneficiary of the unavoidable development growth in LNG vessels. I already took some income when the inventory was up +50%, within the latest weeks, the inventory value was weak because of the ongoing points with Korean authoroties who’re eager to present a much bigger a part of the “cake” to their native shipbuilders. As a tactical place, this can be a “Maintain however watch intently”.
20. ABO Wind (3,6%, 0,8 years)
ABO WInd is the only real the rest of my tactical “Freedom Vitality” basket that I established proper after the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. I stored ABO Wind as a result of for my part, the corporate remains to be considerably undervalued. Their “develop and promote” enterprise mannequin makes it a lot tougher to undertand the actual worth creation which for my part is important.
The corporate is ready as much as create vital long run worth for shareholders, though it would take a while till that is totally mirrored of their P&L. Taking a look at market multiples, in an M&A transaction, the intrinisc worth of the enterprise could be considerably greater than the present share value. “Maintain”
21. Rockwool (1,1%, 0,3 years)
Rockwool, a Danish producer of insulation materials primarily based on Rock wool, is a part of my “freedon insulation” basket that I began in Autumn. I made a decision to maintain Rockwool primarily as a result of I feel it’s a “high quality firm” and as well as has supper strong funds. It wants but to be seen how a lot they may undergo from a tough actual property downturn, nonetheless within the mid time period they need to clearly profit kind the pattern to insulate buildings and save power. “Maintain & Watch”.
22. Sto SE (1%, 0,3 years)
Sto SE, the German insulation firm, is the second remaining member of the “freedom Insulation” baskat”. As Rockwool, Sto is financially actually strong and the valuation is reasonable. “Maintain & Watch”.
23. Recticel (0,6%, 0,3 years)
Recticel is the third remaining insulation firm. I added it in a while after I discovered that I missed out on it as an European insutlation firm. Recticel underwent a big transformation and did promote all different enterprise segments except for insulation. When all of the pending transactions have closed, Recticel appears to be like very low cost. “Maintain & Watch”.
