Disclaimer: This isn’t funding Recommendation. By no means belief an nameless dude on the web. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!
As all the time, I’ve hooked up a pdf with the complete writeup and solely deal with a number of sections on this put up. And the Sound Observe in fact.
- Elevator pitch:
Ocean-Wilsons, a UK listed, Bermuda domicile HoldCo which owns a 56% stake in a listed Brazilian Port/Maritime firm referred to as Wilson Sons and an funding portfolio, is buying and selling a a deep low cost (-48%) to its SOTP worth. Now nevertheless it appears very possible that the Brazilian Asset will probably be bought by yr finish 2024, which might probably set off a re-rating of the inventory on prime of any premium paid within the sale.
2. Introduction:
Long term readers of my weblog know that along with investing into boring GARP shares, I additionally make investments into Particular Conditions sometimes. A particular scenario is a extra quick time period oriented funding with a transparent set off or catalyst. In earlier instances, I did extra of them, as of late I’ve much less time and solely look into them in the event that they soar at me however often with a comparatively small allocation. There are various kinds of Particular Conditions. This one is of the “Undervalued firm sells main working asset” kind of Scenario, of which I’ve finished a number of up to now. The final one was Exmar two years in the past with an honest final result.
3. Ocean Wilson: Potential sale of main working asset
Ocean Wilsons is a UK listed. Bermuda domiciled holding firm with a market cap of round 470 mn GBP. It’s fairly an uncommon firm. It studies in USD, owns a 57% stake in a listed Brazilian Port/Maritime firm and runs a “fund of fund” hedge fund portfolio.
I got here throughout the corporate in the course of the evaluation of each. Logistec and Eurokai, however didn’t make investments to date.
The Stability Sheet is tough to learn because it combines an funding portfolio and the consolidated Brazilian Port operations.
On the plus aspect, because the subsidiary is listed, it’s fairly straightforward to see that the worth of that participation referred to as (Wilsons Sons S.A.) is increased than the market cap of the guardian firm.
A fast and soiled SOTP evaluation offers us the next Low cost/potential upside:
Previous to the announcement (early June 2023), Ocean Wilsons additionally traded at a 50% low cost, so the low cost to NAV hasn’t narrowed that a lot.
Funnily sufficient, when Alluvial Capital wrote about Ocean Wilson in 2013, the low cost again then was solely 20% (these have been the times….):
8. Calculation of the potential return:
To be able to calculate a possible return on this particular scenario, we have to make a number of assumptions:
- What’s the assumed likelihood of a deal vs. no-deal ?
- What’s the timeline ?
- What would be the final buy worth for the Brazilian stake ?
- What’s going to Ocean Wilson do with the proceeds ?
- How will the share worth of Ocean Wilson react, i.e. how would be the low cost to NAV after a deal ?
- What occurs if the deal doesn’t undergo ?
My “intestine feeling” assumptions could be as follows:
- 75% likelihood
- 12 months finish 2024 (for deal announcement, Q1 2025 for NAV low cost tightening)
- Present market worth +20%
- Reinvest in Hedge-Funds
- NAV low cost will slim to -35%
- Share worth will drop again to mid June Stage 2023
This offers us the next “anticipated” return:
After all my assumptions might turn into improper
- The acquisition worth could possibly be decrease or increased.
- Perhaps the NAV low cost doesn’t slim in any respect (unfavorable).
- Perhaps Ocean Wilson pays a particular dividend and even buys again inventory (optimistic).
- If the deal fails, the share worth might go decrease (unfavorable).
- the timeline could possibly be additional prolonged
On steadiness, I do suppose that my assumptions will not be aggressive and ought to be thought of a “Base case”. For me, +24% anticipated return for a possible holding interval of ~6 months seems fairly OK.
11. Conclusion & Recreation Plan:
Ocean Wilsons Holdings seems like a probably attention-grabbing particular scenario. There’s a comparatively clear catalyst with respectable upside and the potential draw back seems restricted.
I subsequently determined to allocate ~2% of the portfolio into this Particular Scenario funding at ~13,70 GBP/share.
The attention-grabbing half will probably be if and after we get additional data on a sale. Equally attention-grabbing will probably be if Administration then says one thing about what they will do with the proceeds. Within the Exmar case as an example, there was a time lag between the announcement of the sale and the announcement of a moderately small particular dividend.
It may also be useful to observe what Hansa Funding and Wilson Sons will talk in parallel.
Bonus Soundtrack: Mas que nada
Sergio Mendes feat. Black Eyed Peas – Mas Que Nada
