Within the first 6 months of 2023, the Worth & Alternative portfolio gained +5,0% (together with dividends, no taxes) in opposition to a acquire of +12,8% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).
Hyperlinks to earlier Efficiency opinions could be discovered on the Efficiency Web page of the weblog. Another funds that I observe have carried out as follows within the first 6M 2023:
Companions Fund TGV: 3,6%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: 16,6%
Squad European Convictions +7,6%
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen 6,9%
Squad Aguja Particular Scenario +5,3%
Paladin One -0,8%
Alphastars Europe + 11,4%
Efficiency assessment:
Total, the portfolio efficiency was within the decrease third of my peer group. Because the peer group is usually Small cap centered, the general relative low returns correspond with the returns of European small cap indices and are mosly properly under Massive cap indices. Wanting on the month-to-month returns, it isn’t troublesome to see that particularly January and June have been in relative phrases very disappointing.
Particularly within the final 2 weeks or so, some positions have been topic to very “indiviual” impacts, corresponding to ABO Wind and their concept to remodel themselves right into a authorized construction (“KGaA”) that will curtail shareholder rights, or Sto that was impacted negatively by a really weak outlook from competitor Steico. Or Thermador, which suffered for no apparent motive.
That this yr could be a troublesome one in relative phrases was already clear from January. I nonetheless assume that the portfolio presents nice potential, however quick time period share worth momentum is clearly not superb for a lot of of my positions. Fortunately, I don’t have to care in any respect about quick time period developments, I’ll proceed to deal with the mid- to long run which, I hope, will convey good outcomes.
2023 is a kind of years the place I’m very pleased that I don’t handle third occasion cash. I can solely think about what sort of discussions I would want to have with shoppers who wouldn’t perceive why the efficiency is thus far behind the benchmarks. Fortunate me !!!
Transactions Q2:
The present portfolio could be seen as all the time on the Portfolio web page.
In Q2, I bought Rockwool and Recticel after my deeper dive into insulation firms. Rockwool at a acquire of ~28%, Recticel at a lack of -9%. The second half of the yr will likely be robust for European constructing firms, so perhaps there’s a probability to extend the publicity to chose gamers.
I additionally exited VEF because it grow to be one way or the other to small to hassle at a lack of ~-10%. This had been a pleasant winner in between however lately, Fintech seems like a lifeless duck. Nonetheless I’ll preserve monitoring them. I additionally bought extra Meier & Tobler because the share worth is above my mid time period goal.
There have been no new positions, solely place will increase in Schaffner and Sto.
Remark: “AI has saved the day”
What a distinction 9 months make. In Q3 2022, issues seemed very unhealthy for something associated to know-how. The Covid growth was over, Tech firms have been lowering their forecasts and slicing jobs and Nasdaq share costs have been kind of in free fall. In retroperspective, all of this more than likely modified with the November thirtieth launch of ChatGPT.
ChatGPT not solely turned the quickest rising client app with extra then 100 mn signal ups after 2 months, it additionally injected new life into the tech sector. “Generative AI” as it’s now identified is meant to be the “huge subsequent factor” that may make everybody’s life significantly better and produce enormous quantities of cash to Tech firms.
As all the time, the massive Tech firms gained most, as traders think about their moats so robust that they are going to win even when they don’t have a devoted product like Apple. Within the wake of the Large Tech firms, additionally a whole lot of the “fallen ShitCo Angels” have made some spectacular positive aspects and the standard “ShitCo Tech Bros” rejoice themselves for 2023 positive aspects on FinTwit.
“Generative AI” appears to have woke up investor’s animal spirits in document time and even in early stage VC, the cash begins flowing freely once more like this 105 mn Seed spherical for a 4 week outdated AI start-up from France.
To not be outdone, German traders are already flocking again to newly listed Shitcos like ParTec which mixes (in fact) Quantum computing and AI.
Marc Andreesen from A16Z already annonced in early June that “AI will save the world”. For now, AI has clearly saved the world for Enterprise Capitalists and Tech Buyers. Not too long ago I used to be pitched by a VC claiming that Generative AI and Blockchain are inseparable and due to this fact Blockchain will come again with a vengance, too.
Personally, I’m not 100% certain if and the way justified the present AI hype is. This is primarily based on my remark of the primary AI Increase that occurred round 4-5 years within the VC world.
Even again then, each startup claimed to have superior AI capabilities. A few of these start-ups like Lemonade and Upstart made it to the inventory trade. Now after a few years it has grow to be fairly clear, that these AI capabilities have been nice on paper however sadly didn’t result in a superior consequence in enterprise efficiency for no matter motive. One other a lot hyped AI case, Self driving automobiles, additionally turned oput to be a lot tougher than initially thought and aside from some native successes, full self driving appears nonetheless a few years away.
One other remark is the next: Lots of the present AI supporters like A16Z, Sadya Nadella or others declare that AI will likely be this excellent “Copilot” for people, serving to us to enhance our skills and no hurt will likely be completed to anybody.
Nonetheless, after I was studying the obtainable AI literature 5 years in the past, most authors agreed on one factor: AI will develop and iterate at a digital pace. So as soon as AI is nice sufficient to actually assist us in many various conditions, it’s inevitable that AI will be capable to these items in a really quick time with out human assist as it’s going to iterate extremely quick. My recommendation for younger folks could be: Don’t aspire to grow to be a “Immediate Engineer”, that occupation received’t final that lengthy in any case.
So for the longer term we can have more than likely two situations and I’m not certain which is extra seemingly:
- AI capaibilities, regardless of ChatGPT and Midjourney are nonetheless rudimentary and it’ll nonetheless take a very long time till they actually make a distinction OR
- AI capabilities are already far superior and in very quick time AI primarily based algorithms will create havoc in lots of areas of life
Possibly I’m too pesimistic right here, however I don’t see the mild, “save the world” properties of AI but. The one clear winners of the present hype are clearly VCs and the “tech ShitCo Bros” who’re in a position to pump the following technology of ShitCos.
In the meanwhile, I personally I really feel extra comfy with “brick and mortar” enterprise fashions which might be exhausting to exchange with AI than something that might be impacted severly corresponding to Software program.
