Since Harry Markowitz developed fashionable portfolio idea’s mean-variance optimization (MVO), monetary advisors and wealth managers have been confronted with an important query: What’s the relative significance of threat tolerance (the investor’s angle towards threat) in comparison with threat capability (the investor’s capacity to endure unfavorable outcomes)?
I need to confess that I’ve been perplexed by this query for many years. My frequent co-author, Paul Kaplan, and I imagine we have now solved this 50+ yr conundrum utilizing an expanded MVO optimization mannequin referred to as web value optimization (NWO).
I plan to debate our findings on my panel at CFA Institute LIVE 2025 in Chicago in Could.
How did we get right here?
The aim (goal operate) of mean-variance optimization is to maximise the anticipated return of a portfolio, minus a personalised penalty for the anticipated threat (variance) of the portfolio. Personalised penalty is the investor’s threat tolerance coefficient multiplied by the variance of the portfolio.
In MVO, the “threat tolerance” coefficient is a single quantity reflecting the speed at which the investor is keen to commerce off extra threat in pursuit of extra anticipated return. Realizing the investor’s threat tolerance coefficient permits you to resolve for the corresponding MVO environment friendly portfolio.
Within the economics literature and the works of Nobel Prize winners like Paul Samuelson, threat tolerance is clearly associated to the investor’s angle towards threat, not threat capability.
Advisors ceaselessly have a deep understanding of their shoppers’ conditions. This may embrace data on further accounts, spousal property, compensation data, mortgage funds, and so forth. Some shoppers could also be very snug with threat, however with little capability for antagonistic outcomes given their circumstances. Whereas different shoppers are extraordinarily uncomfortable with threat however can tolerate antagonistic outcomes with little impression on their monetary well-being. Advisors discover themselves navigating what has been a extremely subjective threat tolerance (angle) versus threat capability conundrum.
Two Approaches to Danger Capability
Pragmatically, there have been two approaches that explicitly give attention to threat capability.
The primary method is a typical characteristic of the “scoring” part of threat tolerance questionnaires. When scoring the responses to a threat tolerance questionnaire, there are ceaselessly two scores: a threat tolerance rating and a time horizon rating. The time horizon rating serves as a crude proxy for the investor’s capability to tackle threat that limits which portfolios are deemed appropriate.
The second method might be much less identified to practitioners however prevalent within the practitioner-oriented literature. This method is greatest represented by the “discretionary wealth speculation” primarily put forth by Jarrod Willcox.[1] In a majority of these approaches, the investor’s angle towards threat is discounted or ignored, and monetary ratios just like the ratio of assets-to-liabilities are used as the first issue to estimate a so-called “threat tolerance coefficient. I exploit quotes to tell apart this from the financial definition of threat tolerance as an angle.
Web Value Optimization (NWO)
In our 2024 CFA Institute Analysis Basis guide, “Lifetime Monetary Recommendation,” Kaplan and I put forth NWO. It’s a important extension of MVO. NWO consists of all the investor’s property and labilities within the optimization, particularly human capital, and it optimizes the investor’s holistic financial stability sheet.
An investor’s financial stability sheet consists of all his or her property — dwelling, land, collectables, and all monetary property. Most significantly, the financial stability sheet consists of the capitalized worth of the investor’s lifetime of earnings — human capital. For many individuals, the mortality weighted web current worth of all future labor earnings, together with deferred labor earnings within the type of outlined advantages and social safety, is their single largest asset.
The lifetime of money flows stemming from human capital is ceaselessly paying homage to the money flows you’ll obtain from a big, inflation-linked, long-duration bond. Others have much less regular human capital that may resemble a inventory/bond combine.
On the right-side of an financial stability sheet, all of us have ongoing bills, reminiscent of hire, a mortgage, insurance coverage, medical prices, and meals. Whereas these might not be authorized liabilities, these bills are sometimes inescapable. Collectively, their capitalized values type what we consider because the investor’s nondiscretionary consumption legal responsibility.
Simply as a stability sheet is a vital indicator of an organization’s monetary well being, a holistic particular person financial stability sheet is a wonderful indicator of the investor’s total monetary well being and capability for taking up threat. The distinction between the entire worth of all property and all liabilities is web value. Therefore the time period web value optimization or NWO.
NWO consists of all the main financial stability sheet entries. Nontradable entries — the investor’s human capital and nondiscretionary consumption legal responsibility — are included within the optimization, though the optimizer can not change the web current worth of both. These nontradeable property are modeled as portfolios of asset lessons, which allow us to derive correct market-based low cost charges and perceive how they work together with the remainder of the stability sheet.
Think about a 45-year previous pharmaceutical scientist with a base wage of $200,000, adjusted annually for inflation, who receives $100,000 nominal restricted inventory items with a five-year vesting schedule who additionally expects to obtain roughly $25,000 per yr from social safety beginning at age 65. One might mannequin this particular person’s human capital as practically 2/3rds long-duration-inflation-adjusted company bonds with a length akin to the 20 years of money flows, and practically 1/3rd mid-cap shares (reflecting the scale of the corporate).
You could possibly refine the 1/3rd mid-cap shares by modeling them primarily based on the pharmaceutical sector and even utilizing the precise inventory in query. The present web current worth of social safety isn’t value that a lot in the present day, however it too must be accounted for correctly. The anticipated returns on every type the idea for a weighted common value of capital for calculating the worth of the scientist’s human capital.
The capitalized worth of the investor’s nondiscretionary consumption legal responsibility, which is considerably like issuing a long-duration-inflation-linked bond with outgoing coupon funds, is included as a nontradable unfavorable holding within the optimization.
Then within the presence of nontradable property and liabilities NWO determines the optimum asset allocation for the investor’s tradable property — an optimization that totally accounts for the investor’s capacity to tackle threat.
Shifting by time life occurs. The shopper may very well be fired, the worth of inventory might go up/down, inflation might enhance/lower, begin a household, or an uninsured dwelling on the coast may very well be washed away, and so forth. Critically, as the worth of the particular person’s property relative to the worth of liabilities evolves, the particular person’s monetary well being and talent to tackle threat evolve. Not like asset-only MVO, NWO totally captures the investor’s capacity to tackle threat.
In a February 2025 Monetary Planning Assessment article, “Web Value Optimization,” Kaplan and I focus on greater than 8,000 web value optimizations by which we assorted the investor’s human capital and the composition of the investor’s financial stability sheet. As Determine 1 exhibits, after controlling for the investor’s threat tolerance, the quantity of fairness publicity for tradable monetary property elevated with the relative power of the investor’s financial stability sheet. We imagine this can be a new, however intuitive consequence.
Determine 1: Optimum Monetary Capital Fairness Stage.
Supply: Idzorek and Kaplan (2025).
In Determine 1, every dot is the typical fairness stage of economic capital from 180 web value optimizations akin to completely different combos of human capital and threat tolerance. Because the holistic financial stability sheet strengthens, all else equal, it’s optimum to tackle extra threat.
Conundrum Solved
With NWO there isn’t a conundrum. We not have to ask which is extra vital, the shopper’s angle towards threat or the shopper’s capability to tackle threat.
NWO permits you to use the shopper’s threat tolerance because it was supposed — to mirror the shopper’s angle towards threat. Most significantly, NWO concurrently goes properly past the time horizon proxy of threat capability by totally reflecting the shopper’s capacity to tackle threat as captured by a holistic and evolving financial stability sheet.
With the development of web value optimization, the monetary planning business ought to transfer from MVO to NWO.
References
Idzorek, Thomas M., and Paul D. Kaplan. 2024. Lifetime Monetary Recommendation: A Personalised Optimum Multi-Stage Strategy. Charlottesville, VA: Analysis Basis of CFA Institute. https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/websites/default/recordsdata/-/media/paperwork/article/rf-brief/lifetime-financial-advice.pdf
Idzorek, Thomas M., and Paul D. Kaplan. 2025. “Web Value Optimization.” Monetary Planning Assessment 8 (1): e1200. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cfp2.1200
Straehl, Philip U., Robert ten Brincke, and Carlos Gutierrez Mangas. 2024. “Ought to Your Inventory Portfolio Contemplate Your Profession?” Morningstar Analysis Paper, June 21.
Wilcox, Jarrod W. 2003. “Harry Markowitz and the Discretionary Wealth Speculation.” Journal of Portfolio Administration 29 (3): 58 – 65. DOI: 10.3905/jpm.2003.319884
Wilcox, Jarrod W., and Frank J. Fabozzi. 2009. “A Discretionary Wealth Strategy for Funding Coverage.” Journal of Portfolio Administration 36 (1): 46-59. DOI: 10.3905/JPM.2009.36.1.046
Wilcox, Jarrod W., Jeffrey E. Horvitz, and Dan DiBartolomeo. 2006. Funding Administration for Taxable Personal Buyers. Charlottesville, VA: Analysis Basis of CFA Institute.
[1] Examples embrace Wilcox (2003), Wilcox, Horvitz, and di Bartolomeo (2006), and Wilcox and Fabozzi (2009).
